Publication: Hybrid Model Of Climate Effects On Dengue Forecast And Control In Selangor, Malaysia
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Date
2025-07
Authors
Lu, Xinyi
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Abstract
Existing dengue forecasting approaches in Malaysia are constrained by two main limitations: deterministic models typically assume a constant mosquito biting rate, neglecting its climate-driven variability, while statistical time series models are usually effective only for short-term forecasts. These constraints hinder the accurate prediction of outbreak dynamics and limit the utility of earlywarning systems. This study develops two integrated approaches: (i) coupled Susceptible-Infective for vector populations and Susceptible-Infective-Recovered for human populations (SI-SIR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX) model, and (ii) SISIR with Multiple Linear Regression and Long Short-Term Memory (MLR-LSTM) model.
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Keywords
Dengue--Selangor (Malaysia) , Mathematical models