Long run and short run cointegration relationship for tourist arrivals in Malaysia
| dc.contributor.author | Gan, Keng You | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2017-07-06T08:52:30Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2017-07-06T08:52:30Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2007-06 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Tourism is an important source of foreign exchange earnings for many countries in the world. This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between number of tourist arrivals in Malaysia (TA) and the selected variables for nine selected countries; China, Europe, Indonesia, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Thailand, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). Furthermore, this study investigates the linkages between T A and the selected variables with and without the existence of the exogenous dummy variables. In this study, the selected variables are Consumer Price Index of origin country (CPI), exchange rate (EXR) of Malaysia Ringgit to a unit of origin country currency, number of tourist arrivals from origin country to substitute destination Singapore (SUBS) and Thailand (SUBT). Monthly data from January 1999 to September 2006 is used in the analysis. The exogenous dummy variables are bombing in Indonesia, severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, attack on World Trade Center in New York City and temperature of origin country. Investigation is carried out using standard procedures for determining long run and short run relationship such as unit root test, Johansen and Juselius cointegration test, Vector Autoregression (V AR) model, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. The analysis shows the existence of unit root in the series suggesting the variables are non-stationary and contain trend. However, all the variables are stationary at first differenced. Preliminary results from regression analysis reveal that a large variation in the number of tourist arrivals can be explained by the chosen four variables. The results of cointegration test show that there is a long run relationship between T A and the selected variables. The small value of coefficient for the error correction term for all the nine selected countries suggest that it would take a moderate time for any short term deviation to return to its equilibrium. Long run relationship shows that positive relationship between TA and SUBT suggests that foreign tourists usually visit Malaysia and Thailand as a single holiday destination. The analysis shows that exchange rate negatively affects tourist arrivals in Malaysia from Singapore and the UK which suggest that strong local currency is not a main factor affecting British and Singaporean tourists for holidaying in Malaysia. The analysis with the four dummy variables shows that in most cases, tourist arrivals are negatively affected by disastrous events such as severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak and terrorist bombings. The analysis also found evidence (even though not significant) for the effect of temperature of origin country on tourist arrivals. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/4129 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Universiti Sains Malaysia | en_US |
| dc.subject | Tourism | en_US |
| dc.title | Long run and short run cointegration relationship for tourist arrivals in Malaysia | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |
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