Time Series Modeling Of International Tourists Arrivals In Malaysia For Prediction And SME Business Planning
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Date
2011
Authors
Jayaraman, Krishnaswamy
Lin, Soh Keng
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Abstract
The time series models have been constructed to predict the number of international arrivals into
Penang by air and sea based on the avai lable data from January 2002 to December 2007. The
month-wise seasonal factor has been determined and consequently the peak, moderate and lean
tourists months have been detected. In addition, for the entire Malaysia, the total revenue was
estimated for subsequent years based on the international arrivals and the average length of stay.
The Malaysian tourism industry has flourished considerably over the years due to the growth of new
tourist landmarks together with its rich cultural heritage. The industry generated 6. 78% of its total
income from exports in 2008. The dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic factors and
tourism revenue from January 2002 to December 2008 in Malaysia has been studied. Singapore in
particular has been the major contributor for Malaysia in terms of international tourist arrivals and
accounted for 50% of the arrivals to Malaysia on the average per year. It was observed from the
study that visiting friends and relatives would be the main reason for Singaporeans to revisit
Malaysia. A detailed scientific enquiry has also been made on the sustainable ecotourism in East
Malaysia and the strategic impacts and policy recommendations for the tourism development
towards the sustainable ecotourism to the industry players as well as the policy makers were
highlighted.
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Keywords
Exponential smoothing models , Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models , Goodness of fit , Confidence Limits