Modeling Tsunami Hazards in South China Sea and Mangrove Recovery
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Date
2010-06
Authors
Lim, Kah Boon
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Abstract
Sensitivity to earthquake and tsunami hazards has increased significantly following
the 2004 Andaman mega tsunami that killed about 230, 000 people worldwide. The United
States Geological Society (USGS) has identified Manila Trench as a high risk earthquake
zone, where the Eurasian plate is actively subducting eastward underneath the Luzon
volcanic arc on the Philippine Sea plate. Further, the frequent occurrences of earthquakes
with epicenters located under the seabed surrounding Malaysia have heightened concern
regarding potential hazards of tsunamis in the South China Sea. This dissertation starts with
a sensitivity analysis of several earthquake source parameters that may significantly affect
the initial tsunami waves generated. Simulation results indicate that earthquake source
parameters, namely strike angle and focal depth, can significantly affect the initial wave
heights generated. Next, credible scenarios of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea
(SCS) generated by undersea earthquakes in the near future are simulated to investigate their
impact on the coastal regions fringing the SCS. The in-house tsunami simulation model
TUNA is enhanced for this purpose. Several tsunami source representations are used as input
to generate the initial tsunami wave, which is then allowed to propagate towards the targeted
coasts, including Malaysia. Based upon these scenarios, the fault segments that pose the
most threat to Malaysia are identified. This dissertation ends with the study on mangrove
recovery after a large-scale disturbance in the soil salinity due to the surges induced by
tsunami. Vegetation recovery is one of the tsunami resilient community development
activities that would provide efficient recovery of vegetation destroyed by mega tsunami.
Sensitivity analyses of thickness of groundwater lens and upstream input of freshwater are
conducted to investigate their role in recovering the vegetation affected by a large-scale
seawater inundation induced by tsunami. The simulation result of vegetation recovery would
be useful for future application in Malaysia.
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Keywords
Tsunami Hazards , Mangrove