The persistence of Malaysian unit trusts performance by using odds ratio analysis
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Date
2005-05
Authors
Afizar B. Amir
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Abstract
This study seeks to analyze the persistency of Malaysian unit trusts for the long term periods. The period measured was from January 1995 to December 2004. The main focus is to explore whether there is persistency of performance either positive (hot hand or cold hand) or negative (reversed) persistence among Malaysian unit trusts. Indeed, the persistency performance also will be measured by different benchmarks with various intervals of time. The study is free from survivorship bias problems whereby the data used is not liquidated or merged during the research periods. However, this study tries to evaluate the performance persistence by using the odd ratio analysis. The monthly, semiannually, and annually periods were analyzed by using excess returns, Adjusted Sharpe Index, and Adjusted Jensen Alpha Index. Overall, the persistence events occurred in Malaysia unit trust industry. Based on the findings, both positive and negative persistence happened during different periods of times. There are several factors such as risks and interval periods of study could influence the persistency performance. The results could facilitate both fund managers and investors in recognizing and analyzing funds which can benefits the most. However, the past performance is not a reliable indicator for future performance.
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Keywords
Business Administration , Unit Trusts Performance