Optimization of project duration and constraint resource using monte carlo method
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Date
2017-06
Authors
Yap, Han Yin
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Abstract
The use of schedule monitoring and control is an important management tools
and program management. Tools are available to prevent failure in construction of
building that can affect the performance of the construction project. This study reviews
as alternative approach to calculate the critical path in a construction project by using
Monte Carlo Simulation Method to determine the criticality of the activities, forecast a
most probable completion duration of a project as well as estimate the total cost of the
project on a real project in Bayan Lepas, Penang. Critical Path Methods provides
interrelationships of activities and scheduling of construction activities. However, CPM
analysis is a deterministic process which does not account random variables. Thus,
further analysis using Primavera P6 to generate CPM results as well as using Microsoft
Excel to simulate the criticality of the activities and the cost of each activities. Comparing
the conventional Critical Path Method with Monte Carlo Simulation Method, Monte
Carlo Simulation Method shows more realistic results which close to the actual project
progress. The restraint resources is estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation Method so
that both result in duration wise and resource wise can be compared and optimized to
provide a longest probable completion duration with minimum cost.