Modelling And Forecasting Of Flow Rate, Water Level And Water Quality Of Muda River And Beris Dam At Sungai Muda Catchment, Kedah Darul Aman, Malaysia
Loading...
Date
2012-02
Authors
Hossain, Md. Azmal
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universiti Sains Malaysia
Abstract
This thesis reports whether seasonal variation has any impact on water quality of Sungai Muda catchment, the factors responsible of large variation in water quality in Sungai Muda catchment, the modeling and forecasting of monthly flow rate of Sungai Muda catchment, water elevation of Beris dam and feasibility study of another channel to retain water to alleviate flood and loading of main dam. Water quality data was collected from the year 2001 to 2004 from six sampling stations in Sungai Muda catchment. Monthly water flow of Jeniang of Sungai Muda from the year 1947 to 2001 and reservoir elevation data of Beris Dam from January 2006 to March 2009 were analyzed. Multivariate Analysis of Variance showed that water quality of Sungai Muda catchment varies over season significantly. Factor Analysis showed that the influential water quality factors were Factor 1 (pH, Conductivity and E.coli), Factor 2 (Temperature and Turbidity), Factor 3 (COD and TSS), Factor 4 (N_Nitrogen), Factor 5 (BOD) and Factor 6 (Total Phosphate and DO). These Factors were responsible for 80% variation of the total variation of water quality in Sungai Muda catchment. ARIMA (1 0 1) model showed that there was adequate amount (122 MCM) of water preserved in the dam. The reservoir was found to have sufficient amount of water, higher than 84 Meters which was above 97% of live storage of dam. ARIMA model and Linear Regression model were used to forecast monthly water flow of 2002 to 2015 at Jeniang in Sungai Muda catchment. ARIMA model for monthly water flow of Sungai Muda revealed that the
water flow of Sungai Muda increase after July and the water flow is highest in the month of October. The past record of water flow showed the number of higher peaks of water flow were during October. Forecasted figures also indicate higher amount of water flow during this period. Continuous rain will accelerate the water flow and will aggravate the destruction of flood. So making an alternative channel or reserve the water in proposed two dams (Naok dam and Reman dam) will alleviate the flood destruction and the reserved water can be used for agricultural, industrial and municipal purposes.
Description
Keywords
The modeling and forecasting of monthly , flow rate of Sungai Muda catchment