Pusat Pengajian Siswazah Perniagaan - Tesis

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Browsing Pusat Pengajian Siswazah Perniagaan - Tesis by Author "Benjamin, Kwakye"

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    Effect Of Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Sentiment And Housing Finance On House Prices In Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, And South Africa
    (2024-11)
    Benjamin, Kwakye
    The role of housing in the development of economies has been increasingly recognized. However, there has been limited attention from scholars and policymakers, particularly in sub-saharan africa regarding the interaction of house prices with the macroeconomy and the financial markets. This thesis investigates the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals, market sentiment, and housing finance on house prices in ghana, kenya, namibia, and south africa using the ardl model with quarterly data from 1999 to 2020. This research is essential, especially in an era where policymakers are facing challenges of house price fluctuations that hinder affordability. The study reveals that macroeconomic fundamentals are cointegrated with house prices in all countries. Additionally, these fundamentals (real gdp, cpi, exchange rate, and population) significantly affected house prices in the selected countries, both in the long and short term. Similarly, the sentiment index was cointegrated with house prices in all countries and had a statistically significant effect on house prices in south africa and ghana in the long term and only in south africa in the short term. In kenya and namibia, sentiment had no influence on house prices in both the short and long term. Furthermore, the research shows that housing finance factors (interest rate, disposable income, and mortgage debt-to-gdp) were strongly glued with house prices in ghana, kenya, namibia, and south africa. The statistical significance of financing variables varies from one country to the other.